Impact of West-Asia War on Indian Agriculture

Key findings

• ▸India's Fertiliser Price Index climbed to roughly 182-190 in early 2026, up from about 128-166 a year earlier — urea prices rose over 75% year-on-year, trading near USD 700/ton in some markets, with DAP, ammonia, and ammonia-based products up roughly 20%.
• ▸About 30% of global fertiliser trade and 20% of LNG (a key feedstock for urea) normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz; countries upstream of the Strait account for 23% of global ammonia exports, 34% of urea, 49% of sulphur, and 18% of MAP/DAP — the bulk of it disrupted by the conflict.
• ▸India's import dependency varies sharply by nutrient: 18% for urea, 57% for DAP (with 85-90% dependency on imported phosphoric acid/phosphate rock further upstream), 17% for NPK, and a full 100% for MOP (potash), which has zero meaningful domestic production.
• ▸India entered the Kharif 2026 season with total fertiliser stocks up about 36.67% year-on-year (DAP inventories +117.92%, NPK +74.36%) — a cushion that has kept Indian food inflation muted so far, though MOP inventories fell 10.48% and the paper expects the real effects to surface only after the next harvest cycle, in six to eight months.

Abstract

The ongoing conflict has certainly impacted global agricultural supply chains though to different extent depending upon the country's geographical location, existing stockpiles, and governmental interventions. Most direct impact is noticed on fertiliser prices across the globe. Its cascading effect will be felt in the months to come. There is a high likelihood that increased price of fertilisers and rising energy costs could lead to food inflation due to lesser amount of fertiliser application resulting in lower crop acreage and subsequent lower crop production. In long run, it could affect country's economy and food security. However, the extent of impact would depend upon the duration of the conflict. Considering the damage that the war has caused to infrastructure, it is certain that considerable time would be required to return to pre-conflict production levels.

Read the story